Wednesday, October 28, 2009

 

The New World Order

Is Chaos. I treated this topic somewhat here and here. Briefly stated, as energy becomes more expensive, holding together empires and maintaining sophisticated socioeconomic systems gets progressively more challenging. Add to this the excessive complexity of the global system and the threat of black swan events, and we have a recipe for instability, breakdown of the global system, and pockets of chaos breaking out here and there.

The fear of chaos makes governments more repressive, and at the same time makes the general public more amenable to repressive government, simply because everyone wants stability. This is now very evident in Russia, as indicated by a couple of recent articles. A BBC article, Democracy loses support in Russia, notes that fewer Russians feel democracy is suitable for Russia, and that in fact 43% think that Russia sometimes needs an “iron fist” leader. While this article gives us the view from the Russian public, a Reuters article, Kremlin warns against wrecking Russia with democracy, gives us the government view. A Kremlin official states that Russia needs stability and a strong guiding hand for development, and specifically warns of chaos arising because of liberal reforms.

Say what you like about the Russians, but in time we will see that many more governments and peoples around the world will start to say the same things. When push comes to shove and countries are competing for dwindling resources and energy, democracy will fly out the window.



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